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WAFA vs Elmina Sharks — Premier League 2019

WAFA
WAFA
FT
1 – 1
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
A. Boakye 55'
J. Mensah 41'
11/29/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

WAFA59%
×Draw25%
Elmina Sharks16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAFA
1.60
Elmina Sharks
0.71

WAFA creates 125% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 41 away

creates per match

WAFA
1.44
Elmina Sharks
0.59

allows per match

WAFA
0.83
Elmina Sharks
1.76

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

WAFA or draw
84%
WAFA or Elmina Sharks
75%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
41%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+
32%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals
80%
WAFA 2+ goals
47%
WAFA 3+ goals
22%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
51%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
16%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)
78%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.44 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.60

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + WAFA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

WAFA scores more
59%
level
25%
Elmina Sharks scores more
16%

WAFA at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
J. Mensah
55'
A. Boakye

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WAFA vs Elmina Sharks

WAFA and Elmina Sharks drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 29, 2020.

Goals: J. Mensah (41'), A. Boakye (55').

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.