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Elmina Sharks vs WAFA — Premier League 2019

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
0 – 0
WAFA
WAFA
1/12/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · 2020 - 3Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Elmina Sharks46%
×Draw28%
WAFA26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.32
WAFA
0.93

Elmina Sharks creates 42% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.25
WAFA
0.84

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
1.02
WAFA
1.39

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

WAFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
74%
Elmina Sharks or WAFA
72%
Draw or WAFA
54%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
21%
WAFA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
73%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
38%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
15%
WAFA 1+ goals
61%
WAFA 2+ goals
24%
WAFA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
63%
WAFA (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

WAFA away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.39 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.25 + WAFA defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

WAFA attack 0.84 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
46%
level
28%
WAFA scores more
26%

Elmina Sharks at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Recap: Elmina Sharks vs WAFA

Elmina Sharks and WAFA drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium in Elmina.