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WAFA vs Accra Lions — Division One League 2025

WAFA
WAFA
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Accra Lions
Accra Lions
10/11/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

WAFA36%
×Draw30%
Accra Lions34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAFA
1.06
Accra Lions
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

WAFA
1.13
Accra Lions
1.13

allows per match

WAFA
0.93
Accra Lions
1.00

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par
Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Accra Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

WAFA or draw
66%
WAFA or Accra Lions
70%
Draw or Accra Lions
64%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+
14%
Accra Lions wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals
65%
WAFA 2+ goals
29%
WAFA 3+ goals
9%
Accra Lions 1+ goals
64%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
28%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)
51%
Accra Lions (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.13 + Accra Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Accra Lions attack 1.13 + WAFA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

WAFA scores more
36%
level
30%
Accra Lions scores more
34%

WAFA at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: WAFA 0–0 Accra Lions

WAFA and Accra Lions drew 0-0 in Division One League on October 11, 2025.