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Accra Lions vs WAFA — Division One League 2025

Accra Lions
Accra Lions
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
WAFA
WAFA
1/31/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 18WAFA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Accra Lions37%
×Draw28%
WAFA35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accra Lions
1.20
WAFA
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Accra Lions
1.13
WAFA
1.07

allows per match

Accra Lions
1.27
WAFA
1.27

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par
WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

WAFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw
65%
Accra Lions or WAFA
72%
Draw or WAFA
63%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+
16%
WAFA wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals
70%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
34%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
12%
WAFA 1+ goals
69%
WAFA 2+ goals
33%
WAFA 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)
51%
WAFA (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

WAFA away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.13 + WAFA defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

WAFA attack 1.07 + Accra Lions defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Accra Lions scores more
37%
level
28%
WAFA scores more
35%

Accra Lions at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Accra Lions 0–2 WAFA

WAFA beat Accra Lions 2-0 in Division One League on January 31, 2026.

The match was played at WAFA Park in Sogakope.