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WAFA vs Accra Lions — Premier League 2019

WAFA
WAFA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Accra Lions
Accra Lions
S. Bassit 36'
5/18/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

WAFA56%
×Draw26%
Accra Lions17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAFA
1.50
Accra Lions
0.70

WAFA creates 114% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 67 away

creates per match

WAFA
1.44
Accra Lions
0.58

allows per match

WAFA
0.83
Accra Lions
1.57

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par
Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Accra Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

WAFA or draw
83%
WAFA or Accra Lions
74%
Draw or Accra Lions
44%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+
29%
Accra Lions wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals
78%
WAFA 2+ goals
44%
WAFA 3+ goals
19%
Accra Lions 1+ goals
50%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
16%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)
76%
Accra Lions (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.57 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.44 + Accra Lions defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Accra Lions attack 0.58 + WAFA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

WAFA scores more
56%
level
26%
Accra Lions scores more
17%

WAFA at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
36'
S. Bassit
48'
52'
R. Adomako Boateng← R. Adomako Boateng
58'
E. Agyeman Ofori← E. Agyeman Ofori
58'
J. Tedeku← J. Tedeku
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: WAFA 0–1 Accra Lions

Accra Lions beat WAFA 1-0 in Premier League on May 18, 2022.

Goals: S. Bassit (36').

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.