Wacker Innsbruck vs Red Bull Salzburg — Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 16+ matches
Wacker Innsbruck20%
Red Bull Salzburg57%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Red Bull Salzburg creates 91% more chances
Season form · 16 home / 127 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Wacker Innsbruck ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Wacker Innsbruck at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches
Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.02 · 127 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Wacker Innsbruck attack 0.81 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.92
Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + Wacker Innsbruck defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.76
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Red Bull Salzburg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Wacker Innsbruck host Red Bull Salzburg on Sunday, 17 March 2019 at 16:00. The match is part of the Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
Wacker Innsbruck 0 – 2 Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg beat Wacker Innsbruck 2-0 in Bundesliga on March 17, 2019.
Goals: M. Dabour (21'), D. Szoboszlai (90+1').
Red Bull Salzburg controlled possession (62%) and registered 21 shots to 9.
The match was played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Innsbruck.