Wacker Innsbruck 0–1 Red Bull Salzburg

Wacker Innsbruck

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Red Bull Salzburg

12/18/2013

Bundesliga · Round 21Tivoli Stadion Tirol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Wacker Innsbruck17%

×Draw23%

Red Bull Salzburg60%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wacker InnsbruckExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.83

Wacker Innsbruck

0.85

Red Bull Salzburg

1.83

Red Bull Salzburg creates 115% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 133 away

0.71

creates per match

2.14

1.52

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Wacker Innsbruck

0.71

Red Bull Salzburg

2.14

allows per match

Wacker Innsbruck

1.52

Red Bull Salzburg

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wacker Innsbruck+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Innsbruck ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wacker Innsbruck or draw

40%

Wacker Innsbruck or Red Bull Salzburg

77%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

83%

Winning margin

Wacker Innsbruck wins by 2+

5%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Wacker Innsbruck 1+ goals

57%

Wacker Innsbruck 2+ goals

21%

Wacker Innsbruck 3+ goals

5%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

84%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

54%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Wacker Innsbruck (draw refunded)

22%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Innsbruck at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Innsbruck attack 0.71 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.14 + Wacker Innsbruck defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Wacker Innsbruck scores more

17%

level

23%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

60%

Red Bull Salzburg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff