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Red Bull Salzburg vs Wacker Innsbruck — Bundesliga 2018

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wacker Innsbruck
Wacker Innsbruck
3/29/2014BundesligaBundesliga · Round 30Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg68%
×Draw19%
Wacker Innsbruck14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
2.27
Wacker Innsbruck
0.91

Red Bull Salzburg creates 149% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 21 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
2.58
Wacker Innsbruck
0.95

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
0.86
Wacker Innsbruck
1.95

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
Wacker Innsbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Wacker Innsbruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
86%
Red Bull Salzburg or Wacker Innsbruck
81%
Draw or Wacker Innsbruck
32%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
44%
Wacker Innsbruck wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
90%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
66%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
39%
Wacker Innsbruck 1+ goals
60%
Wacker Innsbruck 2+ goals
23%
Wacker Innsbruck 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
83%
Wacker Innsbruck (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.86 · 128 matches

Wacker Innsbruck away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.58 + Wacker Innsbruck defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.27

Wacker Innsbruck attack 0.95 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
68%
level
19%
Wacker Innsbruck scores more
14%

Red Bull Salzburg at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Bull Salzburg vs Wacker Innsbruck

Red Bull Salzburg and Wacker Innsbruck drew 0-0 in Bundesliga on March 29, 2014.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Wals-Siezenheim.