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Waalwijk vs FC Volendam — Eredivisie 2026

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Volendam
FC Volendam
Y. Oukili 90+2'
D. Min 43'
B. Benamar 89'
10/21/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 9Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Waalwijk53%
×Draw25%
FC Volendam22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waalwijk
1.60
FC Volendam
0.94

Waalwijk creates 70% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 19 away

creates per match

Waalwijk
1.05
FC Volendam
0.74

allows per match

Waalwijk
1.15
FC Volendam
2.16

finishing

Waalwijk+0.55scores more
FC Volendam+0.10scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

FC Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw
78%
Waalwijk or FC Volendam
75%
Draw or FC Volendam
47%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+
28%
FC Volendam wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals
80%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
47%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
22%
FC Volendam 1+ goals
61%
FC Volendam 2+ goals
24%
FC Volendam 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)
70%
FC Volendam (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 10 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.05 + FC Volendam defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.60

FC Volendam attack 0.74 + Waalwijk defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Waalwijk scores more
53%
level
25%
FC Volendam scores more
22%

Waalwijk at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
D. Van den BuijsWaalwijkWaalwijk · D
7.9

Match Events

28'
Xavier Mbuyamba
43'
D. Min↳ A. Meijers
45+1'
Deron Payne
46'
R. Margaret← D. Min
52'
Aaron Meijers
64'
D. Johnson← X. Mbuyamba
70'
F. Stevanović← C. Lokesa
71'
D. Cleonise← A. Meijers
71'
O. Buur← D. Payne
76'
Godfried Roemeratoe
78'
J. Flint← G. Cox
78'
Q. Hoeve← G. Kuol
86'
K. Felida← G. Roemeratoe
89'
B. Benamar↳ D. Johnson
90+3'
Michiel Kramer
90+4'
J. Bruma← M. Kramer
90+2'
Y. Oukili↳ D. Cleonise

Possession

47%Waalwijk

Shots

10Waalwijk

Pass accuracy

48%Waalwijk

Statistics

WaalwijkFC
Overview
47%Possession53%
10Total Shots11
0.61Expected Goals (xG)1.39
3Corners4
10Fouls6
Shots
10Total Shots11
4On Target3
4Off Target8
2Blocked0
5Inside Box8
5Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
365Total Passes409
276Accurate Passes331
76%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls6
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Waalwijk vs FC Volendam

Waalwijk beat FC Volendam 2-1 in Eredivisie on October 21, 2023.

Goals: D. Min (43'), B. Benamar (89'), Y. Oukili (90+2').

FC Volendam controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.