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FC Volendam vs Waalwijk — Eredivisie 2026

FC Volendam
FC Volendam
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Waalwijk
Waalwijk
F. Da Silva 81'
X. Mbuyamba 69'
M. Seuntjens 63'
1/14/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 16Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

FC Volendam37%
×Draw23%
Waalwijk40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Volendam
1.60
Waalwijk
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

creates per match

FC Volendam
1.41
Waalwijk
1.56

allows per match

FC Volendam
1.82
Waalwijk
1.80

finishing

FC Volendam-0.18scores less
Waalwijk-0.20scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Volendam ↓

Waalwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Volendam or draw
60%
FC Volendam or Waalwijk
77%
Draw or Waalwijk
63%

Winning margin

FC Volendam wins by 2+
18%
Waalwijk wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FC Volendam 1+ goals
80%
FC Volendam 2+ goals
47%
FC Volendam 3+ goals
22%
Waalwijk 1+ goals
82%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
50%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

FC Volendam (draw refunded)
48%
Waalwijk (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Volendam at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.80 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Volendam attack 1.41 + Waalwijk defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Waalwijk attack 1.56 + FC Volendam defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Volendam scores more
37%
level
23%
Waalwijk scores more
40%

Waalwijk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
X. MbuyambaFC VolendamFC Volendam · D
8.2

Match Events

31'
Derry Murkin
63'
M. Seuntjens
66'
D. van Mieghem← D. Mirani
66'
B. Plat← O. Buur
69'
X. Mbuyamba↳ C. Eiting
72'
R. Kuijpers← M. Biereth
77'
H. Veerman← R. Mühren
81'
M. Kramer← P. Clement
81'
Z. Bakkali← D. Van den Buijs
81'
F. Da Silva↳ G. Oristanio
84'
J. Flint← G. Oristanio

Possession

46%FC

Shots

15FC

Pass accuracy

49%FC

Statistics

FCWaalwijk
Overview
46%Possession54%
15Total Shots8
9Corners4
13Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots8
5On Target4
7Off Target2
3Blocked2
9Inside Box6
6Outside Box2
Passing
46%Possession54%
365Total Passes444
264Accurate Passes329
72%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides1

Eredivisie: FC Volendam 2–1 Waalwijk

FC Volendam beat Waalwijk 2-1 in Eredivisie on January 14, 2023.

Goals: M. Seuntjens (63'), X. Mbuyamba (69'), F. Da Silva (81').

Waalwijk controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 15.

The match was played at Kras Stadion in Volendam.