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FC Volendam vs Waalwijk — Eredivisie 2026

FC Volendam
FC Volendam
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Waalwijk
Waalwijk
D. Johnson 75'
R. Mühren 22', 14'
M. Kramer 59'
R. Niemeijer 55'
4/7/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 29Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

FC Volendam37%
×Draw23%
Waalwijk40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Volendam
1.60
Waalwijk
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

creates per match

FC Volendam
1.41
Waalwijk
1.56

allows per match

FC Volendam
1.82
Waalwijk
1.80

finishing

FC Volendam-0.18scores less
Waalwijk-0.20scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Volendam ↓

Waalwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Volendam or draw
60%
FC Volendam or Waalwijk
77%
Draw or Waalwijk
63%

Winning margin

FC Volendam wins by 2+
18%
Waalwijk wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FC Volendam 1+ goals
80%
FC Volendam 2+ goals
47%
FC Volendam 3+ goals
22%
Waalwijk 1+ goals
82%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
50%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

FC Volendam (draw refunded)
48%
Waalwijk (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Volendam at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.80 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Volendam attack 1.41 + Waalwijk defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Waalwijk attack 1.56 + FC Volendam defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Volendam scores more
37%
level
23%
Waalwijk scores more
40%

Waalwijk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
R. MührenFC VolendamFC Volendam · F
8.6

Match Events

14'
R. Mühren↳ D. Johnson
22'
R. Mühren
36'
R. Niemeijer← Y. Oukili
55'
R. Niemeijer↳ D. Van den Buijs
59'
M. Kramer↳ M. Seuntjens
60'
Robin Maulun
60'
L. Le Roux← R. Maulun
69'
C. Twigt← G. Cox
75'
D. Johnson
76'
D. Cleonise← R. Margaret
76'
S. Adewoye← J. Lelieveld
79'
S. Karim← D. Johnson
80'
Q. Hoeve← Z. Booth
82'
D. Min← M. Seuntjens
82'
K. Felida← D. Van den Buijs
83'
Jurien Gaari
90+2'
Safouane Karim
90+1'
Benaissa Benamar
90+1'
Godfried Roemeratoe

Possession

41%FC

Shots

20FC

Pass accuracy

45%FC

Statistics

FCWaalwijk
Overview
41%Possession59%
20Total Shots15
2.71Expected Goals (xG)1.61
6Corners7
13Fouls11
Shots
20Total Shots15
8On Target8
5Off Target3
7Blocked4
15Inside Box7
5Outside Box8
Passing
41%Possession59%
269Total Passes399
169Accurate Passes312
63%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
6Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Match Recap: FC Volendam vs Waalwijk

FC Volendam beat Waalwijk 3-2 in Eredivisie on April 7, 2024.

Goals: R. Mühren (14', 22'), R. Niemeijer (55'), M. Kramer (59'), D. Johnson (75').

Waalwijk controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 20.

The match was played at Kras Stadion in Volendam.