Waalwijk 2–1 FC Eindhoven: Result & Stats

Waalwijk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Eindhoven

N. Held 49'

J. Uneken 15'

T. Muller 23'

2/27/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 29Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Waalwijk44%

×Draw23%

FC Eindhoven33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaalwijkExpected goals in this matchFC Eindhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.52

Waalwijk

1.80

FC Eindhoven

1.52

Waalwijk creates 18% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.02

creates per match

1.45

1.59

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Waalwijk

2.02

FC Eindhoven

1.45

allows per match

Waalwijk

1.59

FC Eindhoven

1.58

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Waalwijk-0.22scores less

FC Eindhoven-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

FC Eindhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw

67%

Waalwijk or FC Eindhoven

77%

Draw or FC Eindhoven

56%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+

24%

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals

83%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

54%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

27%

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals

78%

FC Eindhoven 2+ goals

45%

FC Eindhoven 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

58%

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.59 · 10 matches

FC Eindhoven away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.58 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 2.02 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.80

FC Eindhoven attack 1.45 + Waalwijk defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Waalwijk scores more

44%

level

23%

FC Eindhoven scores more

33%

Waalwijk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Spenkelink

Waalwijk · G

9.0

Match Events

15'

J. Uneken↳ J. Familia-Castillo

23'

T. Muller

46'

S. Blummel← E. Lukoki Mateso

49'

N. Held↳ R. Fage

62'

X. Blomme← D. Huisman

62'

H. Ali← T. Douglas

68'

Y. van der Veen← R. van Hedel

71'

Sven Simons

75'

N. van Berkel← J. Neeskens

76'

K. van Veen← T. Muller

80'

M. Schaapman← R. Fage

86'

T. van der Leij← D. Cleonise

87'

M. Witteveen← H. Kuster

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaalwijkFC

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots21

2.49Expected Goals (xG)2.08

7Corners9

7Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots21

6On Target9

6Off Target5

1Blocked7

12Inside Box13

1Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

421Total Passes366

353Accurate Passes283

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

8Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Waalwijk vs FC Eindhoven

Waalwijk beat FC Eindhoven 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on February 27, 2026.

Goals: J. Uneken (15'), T. Muller (23'), N. Held (49').

Waalwijk controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 21.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.

Waalwijk vs FC Eindhoven — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Waalwijk vs FC Eindhoven