Waalwijk 3–1 FC Eindhoven: Result & Stats

Waalwijk

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

FC Eindhoven

E. Hansson 44', 33'

P. Quasten 1'

R. Cicilia 30'

5/3/2019

Eerste Divisie · Round 38Mandemakers Stadion (Waalwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Waalwijk44%

×Draw23%

FC Eindhoven33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaalwijkExpected goals in this matchFC Eindhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.52

Waalwijk

1.80

FC Eindhoven

1.52

Waalwijk creates 18% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.02

creates per match

1.45

1.59

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Waalwijk

2.02

FC Eindhoven

1.45

allows per match

Waalwijk

1.59

FC Eindhoven

1.58

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Waalwijk-0.22scores less

FC Eindhoven-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

FC Eindhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw

67%

Waalwijk or FC Eindhoven

77%

Draw or FC Eindhoven

56%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+

24%

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals

83%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

54%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

27%

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals

78%

FC Eindhoven 2+ goals

45%

FC Eindhoven 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

58%

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.59 · 10 matches

FC Eindhoven away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.58 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 2.02 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.80

FC Eindhoven attack 1.45 + Waalwijk defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Waalwijk scores more

44%

level

23%

FC Eindhoven scores more

33%

Waalwijk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

P. Quasten↳ D. Rienstra

16'

K. de Rooij

29'

J. Gaari

30'

R. Cicilia↳ B. van den Boomen

33'

E. Hansson

37'

G. Ndefe← J. Gaari

44'

E. Hansson↳ D. Maatsen

57'

S. Elisha← E. Kabangu

61'

A. Daniels← Marcelo Lopes

68'

H. Mulder← D. Rienstra

77'

J. Zielschot← S. Spierings

77'

S. Bourard← K. de Rooij

Waalwijk

FC

30

3

22

28

10

A

Boomen

6

Essikal

25

▼

Rooij

29

Idzes

15

⚽

Cicilia

17

▼

Lopes

8

▼

Kabangu

1

Vaessen

4

Drost

5

⚽

Quasten

2

▼

Gaari

6

A

▼

Rienstra

10

▼

Spierings

11

⚽2

Hansson

3

Meulenste

9

A

Maatsen

8

Tahiri

7

Seys

Manager: F. Grim

37'▲G. Ndefe←▼J. Gaari

68'▲H. Mulder←▼D. Rienstra

77'▲J. Zielschot←▼S. Spierings

Waalwijk substitutes

21Ndefe12Mulder16Zielschot23Heemskerk19Weert20Vermeulen14Walian15Baggerman13Bilate18Bakari17Bergkamp

Manager: David Nascimento

57'▲S. Elisha←▼E. Kabangu

61'▲A. Daniels←▼Marcelo Lopes

77'▲S. Bourard←▼K. de Rooij

FC Eindhoven substitutes

19Elisha7Daniels11Bourard26Vermeulen24Vercoelen27Vermeulen12Smit

Eerste Divisie: Waalwijk 3–1 FC Eindhoven

Waalwijk beat FC Eindhoven 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on May 3, 2019.

Goals: P. Quasten (1'), R. Cicilia (30'), E. Hansson (33', 44').

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion (Waalwijk).

Waalwijk vs FC Eindhoven — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Eerste Divisie: Waalwijk 3–1 FC Eindhoven