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FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Waalwijk
Waalwijk
S. Simons 85'
8/22/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 3Jan Louwers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Eindhoven33%
×Draw24%
Waalwijk42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Eindhoven
1.39
Waalwijk
1.59

Waalwijk creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC Eindhoven
1.71
Waalwijk
1.77

allows per match

FC Eindhoven
1.41
Waalwijk
1.06

finishing

FC Eindhoven+0.15scores more
Waalwijk+0.63scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Eindhoven ↓

Waalwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Eindhoven or draw
58%
FC Eindhoven or Waalwijk
76%
Draw or Waalwijk
67%

Winning margin

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
15%
Waalwijk wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
75%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
40%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
16%
Waalwijk 1+ goals
80%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
47%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
44%
Waalwijk (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Eindhoven at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.41 · 7 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.06 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Eindhoven attack 1.71 + Waalwijk defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Waalwijk attack 1.77 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Eindhoven scores more
33%
level
24%
Waalwijk scores more
42%

Waalwijk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
S. SimonsFC EindhovenFC Eindhoven · M
8.9

Match Events

3'
Farouq Limouri
46'
E. Lukoki Mateso← Z. Haddaoui
65'
M. Witteveen← R. Kuijpers
65'
M. Kramer← R. van der Venne
74'
Boris van Schuppen
76'
Daouda Weidmann
78'
T. Simons← C. Essers
78'
H. Deenen← S. Blummel
79'
G. Roemeratoe← H. Kuster
79'
L. Wouters← C. Lokesa
85'
S. Simons
88'
T. van der Leij← D. Weidmann
89'
N. Munsters← B. van Schuppen
90+6'
Luc Netten
90+5'
L. Netten← S. Simons

Possession

43%FC

Shots

13FC

Pass accuracy

48%FC

Statistics

FCWaalwijk
Overview
43%Possession57%
13Total Shots14
7Corners5
14Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots14
4On Target4
8Off Target6
1Blocked4
10Inside Box7
3Outside Box7
Passing
43%Possession57%
373Total Passes506
292Accurate Passes434
78%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls10
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Eerste Divisie: FC Eindhoven 1–0 Waalwijk

FC Eindhoven beat Waalwijk 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on August 22, 2025.

Goals: S. Simons (85').

Waalwijk controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eindhoven.