Waalwijk 5–0 Emmen: Result & Stats | Eerste Divisie

Waalwijk

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Emmen

T. van der Leij 90', 18'

R. Fage 90'

J. Familia-Castillo 70'

H. Kuster 21'

4/10/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 36Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Waalwijk51%

×Draw21%

Emmen28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaalwijkExpected goals in this matchEmmen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.50

Waalwijk

2.08

Emmen

1.50

Waalwijk creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

2.05

creates per match

1.43

1.57

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Waalwijk

2.05

Emmen

1.43

allows per match

Waalwijk

1.57

Emmen

2.11

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Waalwijk+0.04on par

Emmen-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Emmen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw

72%

Waalwijk or Emmen

79%

Draw or Emmen

49%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+

30%

Emmen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals

87%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

61%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

34%

Emmen 1+ goals

78%

Emmen 2+ goals

44%

Emmen 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

65%

Emmen (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.57 · 11 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 2.05 + Emmen defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.08

Emmen attack 1.43 + Waalwijk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Waalwijk scores more

51%

level

21%

Emmen scores more

28%

Waalwijk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Familia-Castillo

Waalwijk · M

9.2

Match Events

18'

T. van der Leij↳ D. Cleonise

21'

H. Kuster↳ N. Bakboord

45+1'

Joshua Mukeh

46'

P. Sondergaard← J. Mukeh

51'

Vicente Besuijen

56'

Djenahro Nunumete

58'

Godfried Roemeratoe

59'

S. van Manen← V. Besuijen

68'

T. Geypens← L. Larsen

68'

D. Otten← D. Nunumete

69'

Gijs Bolk

70'

J. Familia-Castillo

74'

R. van Eijma← L. Wouters

74'

Y. van der Veen← D. Cleonise

74'

D. van Kaam← G. Roemeratoe

75'

D. Beukers← N. Emeran

81'

R. Fage←

85'

R. van der Venne← H. Kuster

90'

R. Fage↳ D. van Kaam

90'

T. van der Leij

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaalwijkEmmen

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots10

2.29Expected Goals (xG)1.35

4Corners7

8Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots10

8On Target1

4Off Target6

2Blocked3

10Inside Box8

4Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

438Total Passes361

389Accurate Passes301

89%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1

Eerste Divisie: Waalwijk 5–0 Emmen

Waalwijk beat Emmen 5-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 10, 2026.

Goals: T. van der Leij (18', 90'), H. Kuster (21'), J. Familia-Castillo (70'), R. Fage (90').

Waalwijk controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.

Waalwijk vs Emmen — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Waalwijk 5–0 Emmen