Emmen 3–1 Waalwijk: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Emmen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Waalwijk

S. Peña 31'

L. Adžić 17'

N. Bakker 10'

C. Ngonge 90+2'

4/4/2021

Eredivisie · Round 28De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Emmen47%

×Draw23%

Waalwijk29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmmenExpected goals in this matchWaalwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.34

Emmen

1.76

Waalwijk

1.34

Emmen creates 31% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 97 away

1.41

creates per match

1.05

1.64

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Emmen

1.41

Waalwijk

1.05

allows per match

Emmen

1.64

Waalwijk

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emmen+0.00on par

Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

Waalwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Emmen or draw

71%

Emmen or Waalwijk

77%

Draw or Waalwijk

53%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+

25%

Waalwijk wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals

83%

Emmen 2+ goals

52%

Emmen 3+ goals

26%

Waalwijk 1+ goals

74%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

39%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)

62%

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.11 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.41 + Waalwijk defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.76

Waalwijk attack 1.05 + Emmen defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Emmen scores more

47%

level

23%

Waalwijk scores more

29%

Emmen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Peña

Emmen · M

9.0

Match Events

10'

N. Bakker↳ C. Cavlan

17'

L. Adžić↳ S. Peña

23'

H. Ben Moussa← L. Bernadou

30'

Vurnon Anita

31'

S. Peña

42'

Richard van der Venne

43'

Hilal Ben Moussa

46'

A. Azhil← R. van der Venne

46'

C. Ngonge← O. John

62'

T. Lutonda← P. Quasten

62'

S. Sow← T. Oosting

73'

S. Augustijns← V. Anita

78'

P. Gladon← L. Adžić

85'

K. Veendorp← J. Vlak

85'

N. Laursen← K. Frei

90+2'

C. Ngonge↳ S. Sow

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmmenWaalwijk

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots7

3Corners6

11Fouls18

Shots

18Total Shots7

11On Target2

4Off Target4

3Blocked1

13Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

497Total Passes405

411Accurate Passes338

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

11Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1