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Waalwijk vs Emmen — Eredivisie 2026

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Emmen
Emmen
J. Lelieveld 28'
M. Kramer 3'
1/28/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 19Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Waalwijk50%
×Draw24%
Emmen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waalwijk
1.74
Emmen
1.20

Waalwijk creates 45% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 64 away

creates per match

Waalwijk
1.33
Emmen
0.86

allows per match

Waalwijk
1.54
Emmen
2.14

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par
Emmen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Emmen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw
74%
Waalwijk or Emmen
76%
Draw or Emmen
50%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+
27%
Emmen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals
82%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
52%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
25%
Emmen 1+ goals
70%
Emmen 2+ goals
34%
Emmen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)
65%
Emmen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 96 matches

Emmen away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.33 + Emmen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.74

Emmen attack 0.86 + Waalwijk defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Waalwijk scores more
50%
level
24%
Emmen scores more
26%

Waalwijk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
E. VaessenWaalwijkWaalwijk · G
7.6

Match Events

3'
M. Kramer↳ M. Seuntjens
5'
Mohamed Bouchouari
26'
Iliass Bel Hassani
28'
J. Lelieveld↳ I. Bel Hassani
40'
O. Darfalou← R. Živković
46'
J. Assehnoun← M. Heylen
46'
D. Vos← J. Dirksen
50'
Iliass Bel Hassani
50'
Iliass Bel HassaniCard upgrade
55'
Michiel Kramer
55'
Y. Oukili← M. Kramer
64'
Vurnon Anita
72'
S. Bakari← J. Lelieveld
72'
S. Augustijns← P. Clement
79'
J. Vlak← J. Veldmate
79'
B. Scholte← L. Bernadou
84'
F. Jozefzoon← M. Seuntjens
84'
L. Nieuwpoort← D. Van den Buijs
89'
Sebbe Augustijns
90+4'
Yassin Oukili

Possession

34%Waalwijk

Shots

6Waalwijk

Pass accuracy

44%Waalwijk

Statistics

WaalwijkEmmen
Overview
34%Possession66%
6Total Shots17
3Corners6
16Fouls7
Shots
6Total Shots17
4On Target3
1Off Target6
1Blocked8
5Inside Box9
1Outside Box8
Passing
34%Possession66%
299Total Passes589
203Accurate Passes506
68%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls7
5Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Waalwijk vs Emmen

Waalwijk beat Emmen 2-0 in Eredivisie on January 28, 2023.

Goals: M. Kramer (3'), J. Lelieveld (28').

Emmen controlled possession (66%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.