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WA Tlemcen vs RC Relizane — Ligue 1 2018

WA Tlemcen
WA Tlemcen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RC Relizane
RC Relizane
3/1/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade Akit Lotfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

WA Tlemcen50%
×Draw24%
RC Relizane26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WA Tlemcen
1.65
RC Relizane
1.11

WA Tlemcen creates 49% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 40 away

creates per match

WA Tlemcen
0.92
RC Relizane
0.80

allows per match

WA Tlemcen
1.42
RC Relizane
2.38

finishing

WA Tlemcen+0.00on par
RC Relizane+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WA Tlemcen ↓

RC Relizane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

WA Tlemcen or draw
74%
WA Tlemcen or RC Relizane
76%
Draw or RC Relizane
50%

Winning margin

WA Tlemcen wins by 2+
26%
RC Relizane wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

WA Tlemcen 1+ goals
81%
WA Tlemcen 2+ goals
49%
WA Tlemcen 3+ goals
23%
RC Relizane 1+ goals
67%
RC Relizane 2+ goals
30%
RC Relizane 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

WA Tlemcen (draw refunded)
66%
RC Relizane (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WA Tlemcen at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

RC Relizane away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.38 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WA Tlemcen attack 0.92 + RC Relizane defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.65

RC Relizane attack 0.80 + WA Tlemcen defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

WA Tlemcen scores more
50%
level
24%
RC Relizane scores more
26%

WA Tlemcen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "WA Tlemcen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WA Tlemcen vs RC Relizane

WA Tlemcen and RC Relizane drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on March 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Akit Lotfi in Tlemcen.