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RC Relizane vs WA Tlemcen — Ligue 1 2018

RC Relizane
RC Relizane
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
WA Tlemcen
WA Tlemcen
10/29/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade Tahar Zoughari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

RC Relizane50%
×Draw26%
WA Tlemcen24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RC Relizane
1.52
WA Tlemcen
0.95

RC Relizane creates 60% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 36 away

creates per match

RC Relizane
1.18
WA Tlemcen
0.56

allows per match

RC Relizane
1.33
WA Tlemcen
1.86

finishing

RC Relizane+0.00on par
WA Tlemcen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Relizane ↓

WA Tlemcen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

RC Relizane or draw
76%
RC Relizane or WA Tlemcen
74%
Draw or WA Tlemcen
50%

Winning margin

RC Relizane wins by 2+
26%
WA Tlemcen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

RC Relizane 1+ goals
78%
RC Relizane 2+ goals
45%
RC Relizane 3+ goals
20%
WA Tlemcen 1+ goals
61%
WA Tlemcen 2+ goals
25%
WA Tlemcen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RC Relizane (draw refunded)
68%
WA Tlemcen (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Relizane at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

WA Tlemcen away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Relizane attack 1.18 + WA Tlemcen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

WA Tlemcen attack 0.56 + RC Relizane defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

RC Relizane scores more
50%
level
26%
WA Tlemcen scores more
24%

RC Relizane at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "RC Relizane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: RC Relizane 2–1 WA Tlemcen

RC Relizane beat WA Tlemcen 2-1 in Ligue 1 on October 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Tahar Zoughari in Relizane.