WA Tlemcen 3–1 Bordj BOU Arreridj: Result & Stats

WA Tlemcen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bordj BOU Arreridj

2/20/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade Akit Lotfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

WA Tlemcen43%

×Draw28%

Bordj BOU Arreridj28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WA TlemcenExpected goals in this matchBordj BOU Arreridj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.97

WA Tlemcen

1.27

Bordj BOU Arreridj

0.97

WA Tlemcen creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 45 away

0.92

creates per match

0.53

1.42

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

WA Tlemcen

0.92

Bordj BOU Arreridj

0.53

allows per match

WA Tlemcen

1.42

Bordj BOU Arreridj

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

WA Tlemcen+0.00on par

Bordj BOU Arreridj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WA Tlemcen ↓

Bordj BOU Arreridj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

WA Tlemcen or draw

72%

WA Tlemcen or Bordj BOU Arreridj

72%

Draw or Bordj BOU Arreridj

57%

Winning margin

WA Tlemcen wins by 2+

19%

Bordj BOU Arreridj wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

WA Tlemcen 1+ goals

72%

WA Tlemcen 2+ goals

36%

WA Tlemcen 3+ goals

14%

Bordj BOU Arreridj 1+ goals

62%

Bordj BOU Arreridj 2+ goals

25%

Bordj BOU Arreridj 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

WA Tlemcen (draw refunded)

60%

Bordj BOU Arreridj (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WA Tlemcen at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

Bordj BOU Arreridj away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WA Tlemcen attack 0.92 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 0.53 + WA Tlemcen defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

WA Tlemcen scores more

43%

level

28%

Bordj BOU Arreridj scores more

28%

WA Tlemcen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "WA Tlemcen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff