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Bordj BOU Arreridj vs WA Tlemcen — League #187 2026

Bordj BOU Arreridj
Bordj BOU Arreridj
FT
2 – 1
WA Tlemcen
WA Tlemcen
11/7/2017League #187League #187 · Round 10Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bordj BOU Arreridj60%
×Draw24%
WA Tlemcen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.70
WA Tlemcen
0.75

Bordj BOU Arreridj creates 127% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj
2.00
WA Tlemcen
1.00

allows per match

Bordj BOU Arreridj
0.50
WA Tlemcen
1.40

finishing

Bordj BOU Arreridj+0.00on par
WA Tlemcen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordj BOU Arreridj ↓

WA Tlemcen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bordj BOU Arreridj or draw
84%
Bordj BOU Arreridj or WA Tlemcen
76%
Draw or WA Tlemcen
40%

Winning margin

Bordj BOU Arreridj wins by 2+
34%
WA Tlemcen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bordj BOU Arreridj 1+ goals
82%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 2+ goals
51%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 3+ goals
24%
WA Tlemcen 1+ goals
53%
WA Tlemcen 2+ goals
17%
WA Tlemcen 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bordj BOU Arreridj (draw refunded)
79%
WA Tlemcen (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordj BOU Arreridj at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

WA Tlemcen away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 2.00 + WA Tlemcen defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

WA Tlemcen attack 1.00 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bordj BOU Arreridj scores more
60%
level
24%
WA Tlemcen scores more
16%

Bordj BOU Arreridj at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bordj BOU Arreridj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #187: Bordj BOU Arreridj 2–1 WA Tlemcen

Bordj BOU Arreridj beat WA Tlemcen 2-1 in League #187 on November 7, 2017.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj).