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WA Tlemcen vs Bordj BOU Arreridj — League #187 2026

WA Tlemcen
WA Tlemcen
FT
5 – 1
Bordj BOU Arreridj
Bordj BOU Arreridj
4/6/2018League #187League #187 · Round 25Stade Akit Lotfi (Tilimsân (Tlemcen))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

WA Tlemcen63%
×Draw23%
Bordj BOU Arreridj14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WA Tlemcen
1.75
Bordj BOU Arreridj
0.67

WA Tlemcen creates 161% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

WA Tlemcen
1.50
Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.00

allows per match

WA Tlemcen
0.33
Bordj BOU Arreridj
2.00

finishing

WA Tlemcen+0.00on par
Bordj BOU Arreridj+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WA Tlemcen ↓

Bordj BOU Arreridj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

WA Tlemcen or draw
86%
WA Tlemcen or Bordj BOU Arreridj
77%
Draw or Bordj BOU Arreridj
37%

Winning margin

WA Tlemcen wins by 2+
37%
Bordj BOU Arreridj wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

WA Tlemcen 1+ goals
83%
WA Tlemcen 2+ goals
52%
WA Tlemcen 3+ goals
25%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 1+ goals
49%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 2+ goals
15%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

WA Tlemcen (draw refunded)
82%
Bordj BOU Arreridj (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WA Tlemcen at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Bordj BOU Arreridj away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WA Tlemcen attack 1.50 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 1.00 + WA Tlemcen defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

WA Tlemcen scores more
63%
level
23%
Bordj BOU Arreridj scores more
14%

WA Tlemcen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "WA Tlemcen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #187: WA Tlemcen 5–1 Bordj BOU Arreridj

WA Tlemcen beat Bordj BOU Arreridj 5-1 in League #187 on April 6, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Akit Lotfi (Tilimsân (Tlemcen)).