Wa Power 1–0 Real Tamale: Result & Stats

Wa Power

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Tamale

1/4/2026

Division One League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Wa Power45%

×Draw33%

Real Tamale22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wa PowerExpected goals in this matchReal Tamale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.64

Wa Power

1.07

Real Tamale

0.64

Wa Power creates 67% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.29

creates per match

0.64

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Wa Power

1.29

Real Tamale

0.64

allows per match

Wa Power

0.64

Real Tamale

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wa Power+0.00on par

Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wa Power ↓

Real Tamale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Wa Power or draw

78%

Wa Power or Real Tamale

67%

Draw or Real Tamale

55%

Winning margin

Wa Power wins by 2+

19%

Real Tamale wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wa Power 1+ goals

66%

Wa Power 2+ goals

29%

Wa Power 3+ goals

9%

Real Tamale 1+ goals

47%

Real Tamale 2+ goals

14%

Real Tamale 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Wa Power (draw refunded)

68%

Real Tamale (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wa Power at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wa Power attack 1.29 + Real Tamale defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.07

Real Tamale attack 0.64 + Wa Power defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wa Power scores more

45%

level

33%

Real Tamale scores more

22%

Wa Power at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wa Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff