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Wa Power vs Real Tamale — Cup 2022

Wa Power
Wa Poweradvanced
FT
2 – 0
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
1/7/2024CupCup · Round of 32Wa Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wa Power36%
×Draw24%
Real Tamale40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wa Power
1.46
Real Tamale
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Wa Power
1.25
Real Tamale
2.33

allows per match

Wa Power
0.75
Real Tamale
1.67

finishing

Wa Power+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wa Power ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wa Power or draw
60%
Wa Power or Real Tamale
76%
Draw or Real Tamale
64%

Winning margin

Wa Power wins by 2+
17%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wa Power 1+ goals
77%
Wa Power 2+ goals
43%
Wa Power 3+ goals
18%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
79%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
45%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wa Power (draw refunded)
48%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wa Power at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wa Power attack 1.25 + Real Tamale defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Real Tamale attack 2.33 + Wa Power defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wa Power scores more
36%
level
24%
Real Tamale scores more
40%

Real Tamale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wa Power vs Real Tamale

Wa Power beat Real Tamale 2-0 in Cup on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Wa Sports Stadium in Wa.