Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wa Boufarik vs Amal BOU Saada — League #187 2026

Wa Boufarik
Wa Boufarik
FT
1 – 0
Amal BOU Saada
Amal BOU Saada
3/25/2021League #187League #187 · Center - 8Stade Mohamed Reggaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Wa Boufarik56%
×Draw26%
Amal BOU Saada17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wa Boufarik
1.50
Amal BOU Saada
0.70

Wa Boufarik creates 114% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Wa Boufarik
1.00
Amal BOU Saada
0.90

allows per match

Wa Boufarik
0.50
Amal BOU Saada
2.00

finishing

Wa Boufarik+0.00on par
Amal BOU Saada+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wa Boufarik ↓

Amal BOU Saada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Wa Boufarik or draw
83%
Wa Boufarik or Amal BOU Saada
74%
Draw or Amal BOU Saada
44%

Winning margin

Wa Boufarik wins by 2+
29%
Amal BOU Saada wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wa Boufarik 1+ goals
78%
Wa Boufarik 2+ goals
44%
Wa Boufarik 3+ goals
19%
Amal BOU Saada 1+ goals
50%
Amal BOU Saada 2+ goals
16%
Amal BOU Saada 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Wa Boufarik (draw refunded)
76%
Amal BOU Saada (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wa Boufarik at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Amal BOU Saada away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wa Boufarik attack 1.00 + Amal BOU Saada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Amal BOU Saada attack 0.90 + Wa Boufarik defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wa Boufarik scores more
56%
level
26%
Amal BOU Saada scores more
17%

Wa Boufarik at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wa Boufarik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #187: Wa Boufarik 1–0 Amal BOU Saada

Wa Boufarik beat Amal BOU Saada 1-0 in League #187 on March 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed Reggaz in Boufarik.