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Amal BOU Saada vs Wa Boufarik — League #187 2026

Amal BOU Saada
Amal BOU Saada
FT
1 – 0
Wa Boufarik
Wa Boufarik
5/12/2017League #187League #187 · Round 30Stade Mokhtar Abdelatif (Bou Saâda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Amal BOU Saada56%
×Draw30%
Wa Boufarik14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amal BOU Saada
1.25
Wa Boufarik
0.46

Amal BOU Saada creates 172% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Amal BOU Saada
1.33
Wa Boufarik
0.17

allows per match

Amal BOU Saada
0.75
Wa Boufarik
1.17

finishing

Amal BOU Saada+0.00on par
Wa Boufarik+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amal BOU Saada ↓

Wa Boufarik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Amal BOU Saada or draw
86%
Amal BOU Saada or Wa Boufarik
70%
Draw or Wa Boufarik
44%

Winning margin

Amal BOU Saada wins by 2+
26%
Wa Boufarik wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Amal BOU Saada 1+ goals
71%
Amal BOU Saada 2+ goals
36%
Amal BOU Saada 3+ goals
13%
Wa Boufarik 1+ goals
37%
Wa Boufarik 2+ goals
8%
Wa Boufarik 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Amal BOU Saada (draw refunded)
80%
Wa Boufarik (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amal BOU Saada at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Wa Boufarik away — creates 0.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amal BOU Saada attack 1.33 + Wa Boufarik defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Wa Boufarik attack 0.17 + Amal BOU Saada defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Amal BOU Saada scores more
56%
level
30%
Wa Boufarik scores more
14%

Amal BOU Saada at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Amal BOU Saada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Amal
Wa

League #187: Amal BOU Saada 1–0 Wa Boufarik

Amal BOU Saada beat Wa Boufarik 1-0 in League #187 on May 12, 2017.

The match was played at Stade Mokhtar Abdelatif (Bou Saâda).