Wa Boufarik 1–1 Amal BOU Saada: Result & Stats

Wa Boufarik

FT

1 – 1

Amal BOU Saada

12/24/2016

League #187 · Round 15Stade Mohamed Reggaz (Boufarik)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Wa Boufarik54%

×Draw25%

Amal BOU Saada21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wa BoufarikExpected goals in this matchAmal BOU Saada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.92

Wa Boufarik

1.63

Amal BOU Saada

0.92

Wa Boufarik creates 77% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.17

creates per match

1.00

0.83

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Wa Boufarik

1.17

Amal BOU Saada

1.00

allows per match

Wa Boufarik

0.83

Amal BOU Saada

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wa Boufarik+0.00on par

Amal BOU Saada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wa Boufarik ↓

Amal BOU Saada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Wa Boufarik or draw

79%

Wa Boufarik or Amal BOU Saada

75%

Draw or Amal BOU Saada

46%

Winning margin

Wa Boufarik wins by 2+

29%

Amal BOU Saada wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wa Boufarik 1+ goals

80%

Wa Boufarik 2+ goals

48%

Wa Boufarik 3+ goals

22%

Amal BOU Saada 1+ goals

60%

Amal BOU Saada 2+ goals

23%

Amal BOU Saada 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Wa Boufarik (draw refunded)

72%

Amal BOU Saada (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wa Boufarik at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Amal BOU Saada away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wa Boufarik attack 1.17 + Amal BOU Saada defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.63

Amal BOU Saada attack 1.00 + Wa Boufarik defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wa Boufarik scores more

54%

level

25%

Amal BOU Saada scores more

21%

Wa Boufarik at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wa Boufarik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Wa

Amal