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VVV Venlo vs Groningen — Eredivisie 2018

VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Groningen
Groningen
4/3/2021EredivisieEredivisie · Round 28Covebo Stadion - De Koel -

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

VVV Venlo40%
×Draw24%
Groningen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVV Venlo
1.54
Groningen
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 118 away

creates per match

VVV Venlo
1.29
Groningen
0.98

allows per match

VVV Venlo
1.94
Groningen
1.80

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par
Groningen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Groningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw
64%
VVV Venlo or Groningen
76%
Draw or Groningen
60%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+
19%
Groningen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals
79%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
45%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
20%
Groningen 1+ goals
77%
Groningen 2+ goals
43%
Groningen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
52%
Groningen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 49 matches

Groningen away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.80 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 1.29 + Groningen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.54

Groningen attack 0.98 + VVV Venlo defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

VVV Venlo scores more
40%
level
24%
Groningen scores more
36%

VVV Venlo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VVV Venlo vs Groningen

Groningen beat VVV Venlo 1-0 in Eredivisie on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Venlo.