Groningen 2–1 VVV Venlo: Result & Stats

Groningen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

VVV Venlo

10/31/2020

Eredivisie · Round 7Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Groningen54%

×Draw23%

VVV Venlo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GroningenExpected goals in this matchVVV Venlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.13

Groningen

1.86

VVV Venlo

1.13

Groningen creates 65% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 47 away

1.33

creates per match

1.17

1.09

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Groningen

1.33

VVV Venlo

1.17

allows per match

Groningen

1.09

VVV Venlo

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

VVV Venlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Groningen or draw

77%

Groningen or VVV Venlo

77%

Draw or VVV Venlo

46%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+

31%

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals

84%

Groningen 2+ goals

55%

Groningen 3+ goals

28%

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

68%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

31%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)

70%

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 116 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.40 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 1.33 + VVV Venlo defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.86

VVV Venlo attack 1.17 + Groningen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Groningen scores more

54%

level

23%

VVV Venlo scores more

23%

Groningen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff