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Groningen vs VVV Venlo — Eerste Divisie 2018

Groningen
Groningen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
12/1/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 17Euroborg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Groningen57%
×Draw23%
VVV Venlo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen
1.84
VVV Venlo
0.99

Groningen creates 86% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 95 away

creates per match

Groningen
2.00
VVV Venlo
1.25

allows per match

Groningen
0.74
VVV Venlo
1.69

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par
VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

VVV Venlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Groningen or draw
80%
Groningen or VVV Venlo
77%
Draw or VVV Venlo
43%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+
33%
VVV Venlo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals
84%
Groningen 2+ goals
55%
Groningen 3+ goals
28%
VVV Venlo 1+ goals
63%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
26%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)
74%
VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.69 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 2.00 + VVV Venlo defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

VVV Venlo attack 1.25 + Groningen defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Groningen scores more
57%
level
23%
VVV Venlo scores more
20%

Groningen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Groningen 2–1 VVV Venlo

Groningen beat VVV Venlo 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Euroborg in Groningen.