Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Voska Sport vs Makedonija GjP — First League 2019

Voska Sport
Voska Sport
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Makedonija GjP
Makedonija GjP
10/7/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Voska Sport42%
×Draw26%
Makedonija GjP32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voska Sport
1.39
Makedonija GjP
1.17

Voska Sport creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 94 away

creates per match

Voska Sport
1.13
Makedonija GjP
1.14

allows per match

Voska Sport
1.20
Makedonija GjP
1.65

finishing

Voska Sport+0.00on par
Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voska Sport ↓

Makedonija GjP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Voska Sport or draw
68%
Voska Sport or Makedonija GjP
74%
Draw or Makedonija GjP
58%

Winning margin

Voska Sport wins by 2+
20%
Makedonija GjP wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Voska Sport 1+ goals
75%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
40%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
16%
Makedonija GjP 1+ goals
69%
Makedonija GjP 2+ goals
33%
Makedonija GjP 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Voska Sport (draw refunded)
57%
Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voska Sport at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Makedonija GjP away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voska Sport attack 1.13 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Makedonija GjP attack 1.14 + Voska Sport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Voska Sport scores more
42%
level
26%
Makedonija GjP scores more
32%

Voska Sport at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Voska Sport 2–1 Makedonija GjP

Voska Sport beat Makedonija GjP 2-1 in First League on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Biljanini Izvori in Ohrid.