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Makedonija GjP vs Voska Sport — First League 2019

Makedonija GjP
Makedonija GjP
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
3/3/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Stadion Gorče Petrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Makedonija GjP52%
×Draw25%
Voska Sport23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Makedonija GjP
1.59
Voska Sport
0.96

Makedonija GjP creates 66% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 33 away

creates per match

Makedonija GjP
1.36
Voska Sport
0.88

allows per match

Makedonija GjP
1.03
Voska Sport
1.82

finishing

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makedonija GjP ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Makedonija GjP or draw
77%
Makedonija GjP or Voska Sport
75%
Draw or Voska Sport
48%

Winning margin

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+
27%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals
80%
Makedonija GjP 2+ goals
47%
Makedonija GjP 3+ goals
21%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
62%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
25%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)
69%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makedonija GjP at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makedonija GjP attack 1.36 + Voska Sport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.59

Voska Sport attack 0.88 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Makedonija GjP scores more
52%
level
25%
Voska Sport scores more
23%

Makedonija GjP at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Makedonija GjP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Makedonija GjP 1–2 Voska Sport

Voska Sport beat Makedonija GjP 2-1 in First League on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gorče Petrov in Skopje.