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Makedonija GjP vs Voska Sport — Cup 2020

Makedonija GjP
Makedonija GjPadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
4/17/2024CupCup · Semi-finalsStadion Gorče Petrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Makedonija GjP37%
×Draw22%
Voska Sport40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Makedonija GjP
1.72
Voska Sport
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Makedonija GjP
1.57
Voska Sport
2.29

allows per match

Makedonija GjP
1.29
Voska Sport
1.86

finishing

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makedonija GjP ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Makedonija GjP or draw
60%
Makedonija GjP or Voska Sport
78%
Draw or Voska Sport
63%

Winning margin

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+
19%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals
82%
Makedonija GjP 2+ goals
51%
Makedonija GjP 3+ goals
25%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
83%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
53%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)
48%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makedonija GjP at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makedonija GjP attack 1.57 + Voska Sport defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Voska Sport attack 2.29 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Makedonija GjP scores more
37%
level
22%
Voska Sport scores more
40%

Voska Sport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Makedonija GjP 2–1 Voska Sport

Makedonija GjP beat Voska Sport 2-1 in Cup on April 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gorče Petrov in Skopje.