Vorwärts-Wacker 04 vs Eimsbütteler TV — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 7+ matches
Vorwärts-Wacker 0423%
Eimsbütteler TV58%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Eimsbütteler TV creates 59% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over80
- Under20
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes75
- No25
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 ↓
Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches
Eimsbütteler TV away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 attack 1.57 + Eimsbütteler TV defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65
Eimsbütteler TV attack 2.27 + Vorwärts-Wacker 04 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.63
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Eimsbütteler TV at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Eimsbütteler TV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
PalomaEimsbütteler TV
ETSV Hamburg
Süderelbe
HT16
Niendorfer TSV
Tus Dassendorf
Harksheide
Victoria Hamburg
HEBC
Nikola Tesla
Buchholz
Teutonia Ottensen
Sasel
Türkiye
Halstenbek-Rellingen
Curslack-NeuengammeVorwärts-Wacker 04If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 host Eimsbütteler TV on Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the Oberliga - Hamburg 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Vorwärts-Wacker 04 vs Eimsbütteler TV
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 beat Eimsbütteler TV 4-2 in Oberliga - Hamburg on April 12, 2025.
Goals: B. Karim (22'), M. Burmester (44'), A. Simonovic (53'), I. Claus (68', 84'), A. Fricke (89').
The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Öjendorfer Weg in Hamburg.