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Eimsbütteler TV vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04 — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

Eimsbütteler TV
Eimsbütteler TV
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vorwärts-Wacker 04
Vorwärts-Wacker 04
B. Lucht 77'
J. Gortzen 57'
S. Olayisoye 48'
J. Holscher 43'
I. Claus 8'
10/25/2024Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 14ETV-Sportzentrum Hoheluft

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Eimsbütteler TV69%
×Draw16%
Vorwärts-Wacker 0415%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eimsbütteler TV
2.92
Vorwärts-Wacker 04
1.35

Eimsbütteler TV creates 116% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Eimsbütteler TV
2.55
Vorwärts-Wacker 04
1.43

allows per match

Eimsbütteler TV
1.27
Vorwärts-Wacker 04
3.29

finishing

Eimsbütteler TV+0.00on par
Vorwärts-Wacker 04+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eimsbütteler TV ↓

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Eimsbütteler TV or draw
85%
Eimsbütteler TV or Vorwärts-Wacker 04
84%
Draw or Vorwärts-Wacker 04
31%

Winning margin

Eimsbütteler TV wins by 2+
49%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Eimsbütteler TV 1+ goals
94%
Eimsbütteler TV 2+ goals
78%
Eimsbütteler TV 3+ goals
55%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 1+ goals
74%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 2+ goals
39%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Eimsbütteler TV (draw refunded)
82%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eimsbütteler TV at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 away — creates 1.43, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eimsbütteler TV attack 2.55 + Vorwärts-Wacker 04 defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.92

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 attack 1.43 + Eimsbütteler TV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Eimsbütteler TV scores more
69%
level
16%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 scores more
15%

Eimsbütteler TV at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Eimsbütteler TV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
I. Claus
43'
J. Holscher
48'
S. Olayisoye
57'
J. Gortzen
77'
B. Lucht

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eimsbütteler TV vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04

Eimsbütteler TV beat Vorwärts-Wacker 04 4-1 in Oberliga - Hamburg on October 25, 2024.

Goals: I. Claus (8'), J. Holscher (43'), S. Olayisoye (48'), J. Gortzen (57'), B. Lucht (77').

The match was played at ETV-Sportzentrum Hoheluft in Hamburg.