Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 vs Altona 93 — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

Vorwärts-Wacker 04
Vorwärts-Wacker 04
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Altona 93
Altona 93
M. Burmester 27'
L. Karschau 54', 20'
D. Yilmaz 23'
2/22/2025Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 24Kunstrasenplatz Öjendorfer Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vorwärts-Wacker 0410%
×Draw14%
Altona 9376%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorwärts-Wacker 04
1.07
Altona 93
3.07

Altona 93 creates 187% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vorwärts-Wacker 04
1.57
Altona 93
3.14

allows per match

Vorwärts-Wacker 04
3.00
Altona 93
0.57

finishing

Vorwärts-Wacker 04+0.00on par
Altona 93+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 ↓

Altona 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 or draw
24%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 or Altona 93
86%
Draw or Altona 93
90%

Winning margin

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 wins by 2+
3%
Altona 93 wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 1+ goals
66%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 2+ goals
29%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 3+ goals
9%
Altona 93 1+ goals
95%
Altona 93 2+ goals
80%
Altona 93 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 (draw refunded)
12%
Altona 93 (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

Altona 93 away — creates 3.14, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 attack 1.57 + Altona 93 defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.07

Altona 93 attack 3.14 + Vorwärts-Wacker 04 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 scores more
10%
level
14%
Altona 93 scores more
76%

Altona 93 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Altona 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
L. Karschau
23'
D. Yilmaz
27'
M. Burmester
54'
L. Karschau

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hamburg: Vorwärts-Wacker 04 1–3 Altona 93

Altona 93 beat Vorwärts-Wacker 04 3-1 in Oberliga - Hamburg on February 22, 2025.

Goals: L. Karschau (20', 54'), D. Yilmaz (23'), M. Burmester (27').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Öjendorfer Weg in Hamburg.