Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Altona 93 vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04 — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

Altona 93
Altona 93
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vorwärts-Wacker 04
Vorwärts-Wacker 04
B. El-Nemr 90+1'
Unknown 84', 65', 48'
9/7/2024Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 7Adolf-Jäger-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Altona 9366%
×Draw18%
Vorwärts-Wacker 0416%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altona 93
2.36
Vorwärts-Wacker 04
1.07

Altona 93 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Altona 93
1.43
Vorwärts-Wacker 04
1.43

allows per match

Altona 93
0.71
Vorwärts-Wacker 04
3.29

finishing

Altona 93+0.00on par
Vorwärts-Wacker 04+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altona 93 ↓

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Altona 93 or draw
84%
Altona 93 or Vorwärts-Wacker 04
82%
Draw or Vorwärts-Wacker 04
34%

Winning margin

Altona 93 wins by 2+
43%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Altona 93 1+ goals
90%
Altona 93 2+ goals
68%
Altona 93 3+ goals
41%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 1+ goals
66%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 2+ goals
29%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Altona 93 (draw refunded)
81%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altona 93 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 away — creates 1.43, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altona 93 attack 1.43 + Vorwärts-Wacker 04 defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.36

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 attack 1.43 + Altona 93 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Altona 93 scores more
66%
level
18%
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 scores more
16%

Altona 93 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Altona 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
65'
84'
90+1'
B. El-Nemr

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hamburg: Altona 93 4–0 Vorwärts-Wacker 04

Altona 93 beat Vorwärts-Wacker 04 4-0 in Oberliga - Hamburg on September 7, 2024.

Goals: ? (48', 65', 84'), B. El-Nemr (90+1').

The match was played at Adolf-Jäger-Kampfbahn in Hamburg.