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Vora vs Shënkolli — 1st Division 2019

Vora
Vora
FT
3 – 4
Shënkolli
Shënkolli
5/11/20191st Division1st Division · Relegation Round - 9Fusha Sportive Vorë

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vora58%
×Draw21%
Shënkolli21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vora
2.14
Shënkolli
1.21

Vora creates 77% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 12 away

creates per match

Vora
1.78
Shënkolli
1.08

allows per match

Vora
1.33
Shënkolli
2.50

finishing

Vora+0.00on par
Shënkolli+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Shënkolli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vora or draw
79%
Vora or Shënkolli
79%
Draw or Shënkolli
42%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+
36%
Shënkolli wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals
88%
Vora 2+ goals
63%
Vora 3+ goals
36%
Shënkolli 1+ goals
70%
Shënkolli 2+ goals
34%
Shënkolli 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)
74%
Shënkolli (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.33 · 64 matches

Shënkolli away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.78 + Shënkolli defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.14

Shënkolli attack 1.08 + Vora defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vora scores more
58%
level
21%
Shënkolli scores more
21%

Vora at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Vora
Shënkolli

Match Recap: Vora vs Shënkolli

Shënkolli beat Vora 4-3 in 1st Division on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Vorë in Vora.