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Shënkolli vs Vora — 1st Division 2019

Shënkolli
Shënkolli
FT
1 – 1
Vora
Vora
4/6/20191st Division1st Division · Relegation Round - 4Stadiumi Shënkoll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shënkolli39%
×Draw26%
Vora35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shënkolli
1.38
Vora
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 61 away

creates per match

Shënkolli
1.14
Vora
1.00

allows per match

Shënkolli
1.57
Vora
1.61

finishing

Shënkolli+0.00on par
Vora+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shënkolli ↓

Vora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shënkolli or draw
65%
Shënkolli or Vora
74%
Draw or Vora
61%

Winning margin

Shënkolli wins by 2+
18%
Vora wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shënkolli 1+ goals
75%
Shënkolli 2+ goals
40%
Shënkolli 3+ goals
16%
Vora 1+ goals
72%
Vora 2+ goals
37%
Vora 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shënkolli (draw refunded)
53%
Vora (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shënkolli at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Vora away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shënkolli attack 1.14 + Vora defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vora attack 1.00 + Shënkolli defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shënkolli scores more
39%
level
26%
Vora scores more
35%

Shënkolli at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shënkolli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Shënkolli
Vora

1st Division: Shënkolli 1–1 Vora

Shënkolli and Vora drew 1-1 in 1st Division on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Shënkoll in Shënkoll.