Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shënkolli vs Vora — League #512 2026

Shënkolli
Shënkolli
FT
0 – 7
Vora
Vora
2/18/2023League #512League #512 · Group A - 12Stadiumi Vora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shënkolli17%
×Draw17%
Vora66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shënkolli
1.38
Vora
2.75

Vora creates 99% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Shënkolli
1.25
Vora
2.25

allows per match

Shënkolli
3.25
Vora
1.50

finishing

Shënkolli+0.00on par
Vora+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shënkolli ↓

Vora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Shënkolli or draw
34%
Shënkolli or Vora
83%
Draw or Vora
83%

Winning margin

Shënkolli wins by 2+
7%
Vora wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Shënkolli 1+ goals
75%
Shënkolli 2+ goals
40%
Shënkolli 3+ goals
16%
Vora 1+ goals
93%
Vora 2+ goals
75%
Vora 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Shënkolli (draw refunded)
21%
Vora (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shënkolli at home — creates 1.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Vora away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shënkolli attack 1.25 + Vora defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vora attack 2.25 + Shënkolli defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Shënkolli scores more
17%
level
17%
Vora scores more
66%

Vora at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shënkolli vs Vora

Vora beat Shënkolli 7-0 in League #512 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Vora in Vora.