Volta Redonda 1–3 Botafogo PB: Result & Stats

Volta Redonda

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Botafogo PB

Ítalo Carvalho 45+1'

Edmundo 90', 54'

Pipico 35'

5/12/2024

Serie C · Round 4Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Volta Redonda48%

×Draw28%

Botafogo PB24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volta RedondaExpected goals in this matchBotafogo PB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.86

Volta Redonda

1.33

Botafogo PB

0.86

Volta Redonda creates 55% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 88 away

1.57

creates per match

0.86

0.87

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Volta Redonda

1.57

Botafogo PB

0.86

allows per match

Volta Redonda

0.87

Botafogo PB

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volta Redonda ↓

Botafogo PB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Volta Redonda or draw

76%

Volta Redonda or Botafogo PB

72%

Draw or Botafogo PB

52%

Winning margin

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

22%

Botafogo PB wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

74%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

38%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

15%

Botafogo PB 1+ goals

58%

Botafogo PB 2+ goals

21%

Botafogo PB 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

66%

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volta Redonda at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 84 matches

Botafogo PB away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volta Redonda attack 1.57 + Botafogo PB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Botafogo PB attack 0.86 + Volta Redonda defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Volta Redonda scores more

48%

level

28%

Botafogo PB scores more

24%

Volta Redonda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Volta Redonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

35'

38'

45+1'

54'

56'

56'

56'

Lucas Gonçalves← Joãozinho

65'

Rafinha← Robinho

65'

Raphael Augusto← Patrick

68'

Gustavo Poffo← Bruno Leite

68'

Jô← Warley

70'

Erick

78'

Juninho Monteiro← Sanchez

82'

Lucas Balardin← Erick

82'

Rafael Furlan← Evandro

88'

Lucas Goncalves

88'

Pipico

90'

Edmundo

Volta

Botafogo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Rogério Corrêa

56'▲Karl←▼Ryan Guilherme

56'▲Kesley←▼Vini Moura

65'▲Rafinha←▼Robinho

65'▲Raphael Augusto←▼Patrick

78'▲Juninho Monteiro←▼Sanchez

Volta Redonda substitutes

KarlKesleyRafinhaAugustoMonteiroAvelinoBarraDanrleySilvaSouzaMichel

Manager: Evaristo Piza

56'▲Lucas Gonçalves←▼Joãozinho

68'▲Gustavo Poffo←▼Bruno Leite

68'▲Jô←▼Warley

82'▲Lucas Balardin←▼Erick

82'▲Rafael Furlan←▼Evandro

Botafogo PB substitutes

GonçalvesPoffoJôBalardinFurlanAlanDouglasLimaMosquitoPaulinho

Serie C: Volta Redonda 1–3 Botafogo PB

Botafogo PB beat Volta Redonda 3-1 in Serie C on May 12, 2024.

Goals: Pipico (35'), Ítalo Carvalho (45+1'), Edmundo (54', 90').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira in Volta Redonda, Rio de Janeiro.

Volta Redonda vs Botafogo PB — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Volta Redonda 1–3 Botafogo PB