Botafogo PB 1–2 Volta Redonda: Result & Stats

Botafogo PB

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Volta Redonda

Pipico 90+8'

Hugo Borges 66'

Samuel Granada 50'

9/30/2023

Serie C · Promotion Round - 5Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Botafogo PB49%

×Draw26%

Volta Redonda25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo PBExpected goals in this matchVolta Redonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.96

Botafogo PB

1.46

Volta Redonda

0.96

Botafogo PB creates 52% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 81 away

1.48

creates per match

1.06

0.86

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Botafogo PB

1.48

Volta Redonda

1.06

allows per match

Botafogo PB

0.86

Volta Redonda

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo PB ↓

Volta Redonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Botafogo PB or draw

75%

Botafogo PB or Volta Redonda

74%

Draw or Volta Redonda

51%

Winning margin

Botafogo PB wins by 2+

24%

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Botafogo PB 1+ goals

77%

Botafogo PB 2+ goals

43%

Botafogo PB 3+ goals

18%

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

62%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

25%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)

66%

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo PB at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

Volta Redonda away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo PB attack 1.48 + Volta Redonda defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Volta Redonda attack 1.06 + Botafogo PB defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Botafogo PB scores more

49%

level

26%

Volta Redonda scores more

25%

Botafogo PB at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Botafogo PB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Ricardo Sena← Marco Gabriel

24'

Natan Costa

41'

J. C. de Souza Silva

45+4'

Wesley Matos

46'

Hugo Borges← Júlio Cesar

50'

Samuel Granada

57'

Danilo Mariotto← Renatinho

57'

Mateus Anderson← Jailson

57'

Radsley← Natan Costa

58'

Robinho

60'

Danrley← Robinho

60'

Ítalo Carvalho← Samuel Granada

66'

Hugo Borges

68'

Hugo Borges

70'

Gérson Magrão← Netinho

77'

Giva← Marco Antônio

80'

Emerson Júnior← Henrique Silva

82'

Ricardo Luz

89'

Ricardo Luz

90+2'

R. Goncalves

90+4'

Gerson Magrao

90+8'

Pipico

Botafogo

Volta

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Felipe Surian

57'▲Danilo Mariotto←▼Renatinho

57'▲Mateus Anderson←▼Jailson

57'▲Radsley←▼Natan Costa

70'▲Gérson Magrão←▼Netinho

77'▲Giva←▼Marco Antônio

Botafogo PB substitutes

MariottoAndersonRadsleyMagrãoGivaAlexandreDjavanGustavoMendesSantosTenórioVitinho

Manager: Rogério Corrêa

22'▲Ricardo Sena←▼Marco Gabriel

46'▲Hugo Borges←▼Júlio Cesar

60'▲Danrley←▼Robinho

60'▲Ítalo Carvalho←▼Samuel Granada

80'▲Emerson Júnior←▼Henrique Silva

Volta Redonda substitutes

SenaBorgesDanrleyCarvalhoJúniorAvelinoLuizinhoMarquinhosRaphinha

Serie C: Botafogo PB 1–2 Volta Redonda

Volta Redonda beat Botafogo PB 2-1 in Serie C on September 30, 2023.

Goals: Samuel Granada (50'), Hugo Borges (66'), Pipico (90+8').

The match was played at Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho in João Pessoa, Paraíba.

Botafogo PB vs Volta Redonda — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Botafogo PB 1–2 Volta Redonda