Volgar Astrakhan 1–2 Tyumen: Result & Stats

Volgar Astrakhan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tyumen

D. Lesnikov 31'

I. Nasyrov 77' (pen)

V. Shitov 34'

4/13/2024

First League · Round 27Central'nyj Stadion Astrakhan'gazprom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Volgar Astrakhan42%

×Draw29%

Tyumen29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volgar AstrakhanExpected goals in this matchTyumen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.94

Volgar Astrakhan

1.19

Tyumen

0.94

Volgar Astrakhan creates 27% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 58 away

0.99

creates per match

0.79

1.09

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Volgar Astrakhan

0.99

Tyumen

0.79

allows per match

Volgar Astrakhan

1.09

Tyumen

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volgar Astrakhan ↓

Tyumen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Volgar Astrakhan or draw

71%

Volgar Astrakhan or Tyumen

71%

Draw or Tyumen

58%

Winning margin

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

18%

Tyumen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

70%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

33%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

12%

Tyumen 1+ goals

61%

Tyumen 2+ goals

24%

Tyumen 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

59%

Tyumen (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volgar Astrakhan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Tyumen away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.40 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.99 + Tyumen defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Tyumen attack 0.79 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

42%

level

29%

Tyumen scores more

29%

Volgar Astrakhan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

D. Smirnov← A. Anisimov

31'

34'

50'

55'

66'

T. Zhamaletdinov← D. Lesnikov

66'

K. Ushatov← A. Gilyazetdinov

73'

A. Maryanov← V. Shitov

73'

D. Samoylov← M. Petrov

75'

Oleg Smirnov

77'

I. NasyrovPenalty

79'

K. Folmer← S. Obivalin

79'

K. Kosarev← V. Krotov

83'

P. Shadrin← A. Korotaev

83'

E. Tatarinov← I. Nasyrov

90+3'

K. Myrzakov← E. Bolotov

Statistics

VolgarTyumen

Discipline

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0