Tyumen 0–3 Volgar Astrakhan: Result & Stats | Cup

Tyumen

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Volgar Astrakhan

I. Stefanovich 72'

D. Lesnikov 52'

N. Pechenkin 41'

10/5/2022

Cup · Regions Path - 4th RoundStadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tyumen42%

×Draw24%

Volgar Astrakhan34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TyumenExpected goals in this matchVolgar Astrakhan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.42

Tyumen

1.60

Volgar Astrakhan

1.42

Tyumen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.83

creates per match

1.50

1.33

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Tyumen

1.83

Volgar Astrakhan

1.50

allows per match

Tyumen

1.33

Volgar Astrakhan

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw

66%

Tyumen or Volgar Astrakhan

76%

Draw or Volgar Astrakhan

58%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+

21%

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals

80%

Tyumen 2+ goals

47%

Tyumen 3+ goals

22%

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

76%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

41%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)

55%

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.83 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.50 + Tyumen defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tyumen scores more

42%

level

24%

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

34%

Tyumen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

41'

45'

52'

58'

A. Korotaev← V. Tyurin

58'

N. Kasatkin← D. Pavlov

58'

A. Kobyalko← I. Porokhov

61'

A. Butenko← A. Nosov

61'

A. Pavlishin← V. Tsarukyan

61'

I. Stefanovich← M. Ageev

63'

V. Laptev← N. Balakhontsev

70'

N. Kaplenko

72'

I. Stefanovich

76'

V. Bragin← D. Kozlov

76'

D. Vedernikov← A. Gilyazetdinov

77'

A. Anisimov← V. Milyutin

81'

D. Lesnikov

90+2'

D. Smirnov

Tyumen

Volgar

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Menshchikov

58'▲A. Korotaev←▼V. Tyurin

58'▲N. Kasatkin←▼D. Pavlov

58'▲A. Kobyalko←▼I. Porokhov

63'▲V. Laptev←▼N. Balakhontsev

77'▲A. Anisimov←▼V. Milyutin

Tyumen substitutes

KorotaevKasatkinKobyalkoLaptevAnisimov

Manager: A. Babayan

61'▲A. Butenko←▼A. Nosov

61'▲A. Pavlishin←▼V. Tsarukyan

61'▲I. Stefanovich←▼M. Ageev

76'▲V. Bragin←▼D. Kozlov

76'▲D. Vedernikov←▼A. Gilyazetdinov

Volgar Astrakhan substitutes

ButenkoPavlishinStefanovichBraginVedernikov