Tyumen 1–0 Volgar Astrakhan: Result & Stats

Tyumen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Volgar Astrakhan

I. Porokhov 89'

10/14/2023

First League · Round 14Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Tyumen39%

×Draw30%

Volgar Astrakhan32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TyumenExpected goals in this matchVolgar Astrakhan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.00

Tyumen

1.14

Volgar Astrakhan

1.00

Tyumen creates 14% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 76 away

1.04

creates per match

0.93

1.07

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Tyumen

1.04

Volgar Astrakhan

0.93

allows per match

Tyumen

1.07

Volgar Astrakhan

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw

68%

Tyumen or Volgar Astrakhan

70%

Draw or Volgar Astrakhan

61%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+

16%

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals

68%

Tyumen 2+ goals

32%

Tyumen 3+ goals

11%

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

63%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

26%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)

55%

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.04 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Tyumen defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tyumen scores more

39%

level

30%

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

32%

Tyumen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

Ilya Porokhov

46'

A. Chukanov← N. Balakhontsev

46'

I. Markelov← A. Sinyak

46'

M. Petrov← E. Bolotov

68'

D. Poluboyarinov← T. Zhamaletdinov

68'

A. Anisimov← N. Malyarov

71'

P. Shadrin← E. Tatarinov

81'

A. Korotaev← V. Shitov

89'

I. Porokhov

Statistics

TyumenVolgar

Overview

6Corners7