Volga Ulyanovsk 0–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Volga Ulyanovsk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shinnik Yaroslavl

D. Kornyushin 77'

4/12/2026

First League · Round 28Trud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk35%

×Draw28%

Shinnik Yaroslavl37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.21

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.17

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 122 away

0.86

creates per match

0.99

1.43

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.86

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.99

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.43

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

63%

Volga Ulyanovsk or Shinnik Yaroslavl

72%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

65%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

15%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

69%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

33%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

11%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

70%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

34%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

49%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

35%

level

28%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

37%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Andrey Kostin

45+2'

Denis Rakhmanov

46'

K. Malyarov← A. Kosogorov

56'

Vitaliy Lystsov

63'

A. Gongapshev← D. Mironov

71'

K. Nikitin← D. Samoilov

77'

D. Kornyushin

78'

M. Umnikov← A. Murza

78'

E. Voronin← I. Kasyanov

82'

K. Kovalev← D. Rakhmanov

82'

D. Novikov← A. Saplinov

82'

D. Kamenshchikov← V. Yakovlev

83'

Kirill Folmer

88'

A. Chernyi← I. Porokhov

90'

Egor Baburin

Volga3-5-2

Shinnik4-3-3

15

▼

Samoilov

88

▼

Mironov

11

▼

50

21

64

2

▼

Kosogorov

55

Lystsov

4

Bozov

44

⚽

51

23

30

4

3

14

▼

Yakovlev

55

▼

Saplinov

92

▼

Kasyanov

99

Kostin

7

▼

Murza

8

▼

Rakhmanov

90

Folmer

Manager: Mikhail Belov

78'▲M. Umnikov←▼A. Murza

78'▲E. Voronin←▼I. Kasyanov

82'▲K. Kovalev←▼D. Rakhmanov

82'▲D. Novikov←▼A. Saplinov

82'▲D. Kamenshchikov←▼V. Yakovlev

Volga Ulyanovsk substitutes

1Dovgal97Eremeev20Kovalev31Ustimov27Umnikov28Novikov87Pshennikov22Rakhmanov9Kamenshchikov19Rudenko37VoroninAbzalilov

Manager: Artem Buloychik

46'▲K. Malyarov←▼A. Kosogorov

63'▲A. Gongapshev←▼D. Mironov

71'▲K. Nikitin←▼D. Samoilov

88'▲A. Chernyi←▼I. Porokhov

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

95Vambolt27Chernyi62Karpov5Malyarov17Nikitin77Gongapshev