Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Volga Ulyanovsk — First League 2018

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
4/8/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl41%
×Draw29%
Volga Ulyanovsk30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.96

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 22% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 34 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.13
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.85

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.07
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.21

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
70%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Volga Ulyanovsk
71%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
59%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
17%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
69%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
33%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
11%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
62%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
25%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
58%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.85 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
41%
level
29%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
30%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Shinnik Yaroslavl 2–2 Volga Ulyanovsk

Shinnik Yaroslavl and Volga Ulyanovsk drew 2-2 in First League on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.