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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Volga Ulyanovsk — Friendlies Clubs 2020

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
N. Kotin 63'
2/21/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl44%
×Draw27%
Volga Ulyanovsk30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.40
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.11

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.44
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.45

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.78
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.36

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
70%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Volga Ulyanovsk
73%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
56%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
21%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
75%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
41%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
17%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
67%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
30%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
59%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.44 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.45 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
44%
level
27%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
30%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
N. Kotin
76'
A. Khabibullin
76'
A. Khabibullin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–0 Volga Ulyanovsk

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Volga Ulyanovsk 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 21, 2024.

Goals: N. Kotin (63').

The match was played at TBC in TBC.