Volga Ulyanovsk 1–1 Dinamo Bryansk: Result & Stats

Volga Ulyanovsk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo Bryansk

7/27/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 2Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk54%

×Draw23%

Dinamo Bryansk23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bryansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.11

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.81

Dinamo Bryansk

1.11

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 63% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

2.22

creates per match

1.11

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

2.22

Dinamo Bryansk

1.11

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.11

Dinamo Bryansk

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

77%

Volga Ulyanovsk or Dinamo Bryansk

77%

Draw or Dinamo Bryansk

46%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

30%

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

84%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

54%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

27%

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

67%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

30%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

70%

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 2.22 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.81

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.11 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

54%

level

23%

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

23%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff