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Dinamo Bryansk vs Volga Ulyanovsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
9/20/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 10Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk37%
×Draw29%
Volga Ulyanovsk34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
1.14
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
1.39
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.33

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.83
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.89

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
66%
Dinamo Bryansk or Volga Ulyanovsk
71%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
63%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
15%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
68%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
32%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
11%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
66%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
29%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
52%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.39 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.14

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.33 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
37%
level
29%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
34%

Dinamo Bryansk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Dinamo Bryansk 0–0 Volga Ulyanovsk

Dinamo Bryansk and Volga Ulyanovsk drew 0-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on September 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.